Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences

- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences


Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis

Series Vol. 58 , 20 November 2023


Open Access | Article

The Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Quarterly Economy Growth Rate: Evidence from ARIMA Model

Guozhen Chen * 1
1 University of Wisconsin-Madison

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, Vol. 58, 44-51
Published 20 November 2023. © 20 November 2023 The Author(s). Published by EWA Publishing
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Citation Guozhen Chen. The Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Quarterly Economy Growth Rate: Evidence from ARIMA Model. AEMPS (2023) Vol. 58: 44-51.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic unleashed unprecedented economic turmoil worldwide, with China, as its epicenter, experiencing profound repercussions. This study investigates the pandemic's impact on China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, considering macroeconomic, microeconomic, and societal dimensions. COVID-19 disrupted international trade, manufacturing, and supply chains, causing significant economic contractions. China's resilient response strategies, encompassing fiscal policies, digital transformation, and e-commerce promotion, played a pivotal role in stabilizing the economy. Utilizing ARIMA modeling and credible data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this research quantitatively assesses the pandemic's effects. It highlights the necessity for adaptable economic models that incorporate dynamic societal changes during crises. Policymakers can draw valuable insights from this study for crafting effective crisis response strategies, while investors can identify sector-specific opportunities in technology and related industries, influenced by shifts in consumer behavior. In summary, this study offers a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19's impact on the growth rate of China's GDP, providing a methodological framework, policy implications, and investment insights. As global economies recover from the pandemic's aftermath, these findings will continue to guide decision-makers in building resilient and adaptable economies for the future.

Keywords

growth rate, GDP, COVID-19

References

1. WTO. (2020). Trade Set to Plunge as COVID-19 Pandemic Upends Global Economy, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm

2. Baldwin, R., & Tomiura, E. (2020). Thinking Ahead About the Trade Impact of COVID-19. Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Working Paper No. 878.

3. National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2020). China's GDP grew by 2.3 percent in 2020. https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202102/t20210201_1817188.html.

4. UNCTAD. (2020). COVID-19 and China: Impact on Trade and Economic Growth. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

5. McKibbin, W. J., & Fernando, R. (2020). The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. CAMA Working Paper No. 19/2020.

6. World Bank. (2021). East Asia and Pacific in the Time of COVID-19, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33605.

7. Lu Z, Zhu L, Li X, Li Z. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer Behavior-Evidence From China's Stock Market. Front Public Health. 2022 Sep 6; 10:865470. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.865470. PMID: 36148367; PMCID: PMC9485879.

8. McKibbin, W. J., & Stoeckel, A. B. (2020). The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. CAMA Working Paper No. 19/2020.

9. National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2021). Official Website. http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

10. Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts.

11. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Wiley. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Time+Series+Analysis%3A+Forecasting+and+Control%2C+5th+Edition-p-9781118675021

12. Sharma, Susan Sunila, and Yezhou Sha. (2021). "Special issue on the pandemic research." Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 57.6: 1543-1546.

13. Tian, Wei. (2021). "How China managed the COVID-19 pandemic." Asian Economic Papers 20.1: 75-101.

14. Dakduk, Silvana, et al. (2017). "Customer behavior in electronic commerce: a Bayesian approach." Journal of theoretical and applied electronic commerce research 12.2: 1-20.

Data Availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Authors who publish this series agree to the following terms:

1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this series.

2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this series.

3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open Access Instruction).

Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
ISBN (Print)
978-1-83558-207-7
ISBN (Online)
978-1-83558-208-4
Published Date
20 November 2023
Series
Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
ISSN (Print)
2754-1169
ISSN (Online)
2754-1177
DOI
Copyright
20 November 2023
Open Access
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Copyright © 2023 EWA Publishing. Unless Otherwise Stated