Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
Series Vol. 61 , 28 December 2023
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Access | Article
Dynamic Optimization of Investment Portfolio Based on Self-Attention Mechanism - LSTM Model Prediction
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Abstract
In the era of big data and advanced computational capabilities, financial market participants are continuously searching for innovative strategies to gain a competitive edge. A potential pathway emerges in the domain of deep learning, especially with regard to the LSTM neural architectures, which are renowned for their ability to handle and make predictions based on time series data. This study delves into the utilization of LSTM for predicting stock prices, emphasizing the advantages of dynamic investment portfolios in the rapidly fluctuating market conditions. Utilizing a dynamic window approach for time series data preprocessing, a self-attention mechanism - LSTM model was designed to anticipate the tendency of annual closing prices for five stocks from 2022 to 2023, Utilizing the initial 80% of stock price data as training set and allocating the residual 20% for validation. The performance of the dynamic optimization portfolio model was assessed by dynamically adjusting the weights of the stocks based on the last 20% of the data, and was subsequently compared to actual market cumulative returns. The findings indicate not only that the LSTM model offers a commendable level of accuracy in predicting stock prices, but also that the recursive algorithm for the dynamic optimization portfolio, constrained by maximum returns and minimal standard deviation, consistently outperforms the general market.
Keywords
Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Dynamic Investment Portfolios, Dynamic Window Approach, Neural Networks, Recursive Algorithm
References
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Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-83558-223-7
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-83558-224-4
- Published Date
- 28 December 2023
- Series
- Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- ISSN (Print)
- 2754-1169
- ISSN (Online)
- 2754-1177
- DOI
- 10.54254/2754-1169/61/20231063
- Copyright
- 28 December 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited