Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
Series Vol. 54 , 01 December 2023
Open
Access | Article
Economic Recession Forecasts Using Machine Learning Models Based on the Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Abstract
In the past several years, the global epidemic has deeply affected the world. In this paper, we conduct research to examine the economic costs produced by COVID-19. First, we look for the relationships between the number of new COVID-19 cases and the statistics on economic mobility, and this could help us explain the economic recession during the pandemic. The results show that people tend to stay at home rather than going outside to other places during the pandemic. Additionally, we use the VAR model to forecast the GDP with data from the preceding 40 years, which might be able to help us in the future with risk management. Even though we fail to obtain the accurate estimate of the GDP, it still provides us with a way to conduct advanced planning. The inaccuracy of COVID-19 instances and other social or political issues that were left out could both contribute to the bias.
Keywords
COVID-19, economics, VAR model, GDP
References
1. Rodeck, D. (2022) What Is A Recession? Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-a-recession/
2. Hlavka, J. and Rose, A. (2023) COVID-19’s Total Cost to the U.S. Economy Will Reach $14 Trillion by End of 2023. The Conversation. Retrieved from https://healthpolicy.usc.edu/article/covid-19s-total-cost-to-the-economy-in-us-will-reach-14-trillion-by-end-of-2023-new-research/
3. Rodousakis, N. and Soklis, G. (2022) The Impact of COVID-19 on the US Economy: The Multiplier Effects of Tourism. Economies, 10(1),2.
4. FRED Economics Data. St. Louis Federal Reserve. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
5. Chen J., Vullikanti, A., Santos, J. et al. (2021) Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US. Sci Rep 11, 20451.
6. COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. (2022) Google. Retrieved from https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
7. COVID-19 Case Data. CSSE at Johns Hopkins University. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covi4d_19_daily_reports
Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-83558-155-1
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-83558-156-8
- Published Date
- 01 December 2023
- Series
- Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- ISSN (Print)
- 2754-1169
- ISSN (Online)
- 2754-1177
- DOI
- 10.54254/2754-1169/54/20230905
- Copyright
- 01 December 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited