Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
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Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
Series Vol. 46 , 01 December 2023
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Post COVID-19 International Economy Recovery: Forecasting Bilateral Trade Between U.S. and China
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Abstract
This paper aims to use an empirical analysis to study and forecast the bilateral trade between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China in the post-pandemic era. This study was conducted from three perspectives: aggregate demand (import), supply (export), and trading potentials. In sections of import and export analysis, the paper focuses on analyzing the aggregate behavior by households with Schmitt-Groh´e, Uribe, Woodford’s risk-averse demand model in an open economy and the firm production optimization model by Giovanni, Kalemli-Özcan, Silva, and Yildirim. In the analysis of the bilateral trade potentials, a gravity model of trade with one least square regression was applied and subsidized with the test method from Liu. From the study, it was found that the bilateral import and export between the U.S. and China are facing challenges from stringent policies, fragmentation of global value chains, and the residual effects of the pandemic on consumption. Thereby, the trading potential between the U.S. and China is restrained to an intermediate level, which is not beneficial for the robust growth of bilateral trade in the future.
Keywords
macroeconomics, international trade, post-pandemic economy
References
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Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-83558-139-1
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-83558-140-7
- Published Date
- 01 December 2023
- Series
- Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- ISSN (Print)
- 2754-1169
- ISSN (Online)
- 2754-1177
- DOI
- 10.54254/2754-1169/46/20230329
- Copyright
- 01 December 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited