Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
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Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Management Research and Economic Development
Series Vol. 20 , 13 September 2023
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Is the Stock Market a Reliable Indicator of the National Economy? -- Empirical Analysis According to Chinese Data
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Abstract
Based on China’s economic data from 1992 to 2021, this essay employs the unitary linear regression model to investigate the effect of the Shanghai Composite Index on per capita GDP and carries out heterogeneity analysis from the perspective of different bank types. This paper concludes that the stock market in China has the function of a barometer. Based on different industries, the Chinese stock market’s capacity as a barometer is effective in different industries, but China’s stock market has the greatest effect on the tertiary industry, the second industry, and the least effect on the primary industry. Based on the expenditure approach, Chinese stock market’s use as a barometer is effective for different components of GDP, but the effect of China’s stock market on net exports of products and services is the largest, followed by government consumption and input-output ratio, and the effect on household consumption is the least. Based on the consideration of timing, the Chinese stock market’s ability to serve as a barometer only took effect before the outbreak of the substandard goods crisis in 2008 and failed after the outbreak of the crisis.
Keywords
Shanghai composite index, gross regional product per capita, regression, heterogeneity, conservatism
References
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Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Management Research and Economic Development
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-915371-83-6
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-915371-84-3
- Published Date
- 13 September 2023
- Series
- Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- ISSN (Print)
- 2754-1169
- ISSN (Online)
- 2754-1177
- DOI
- 10.54254/2754-1169/20/20230176
- Copyright
- 13 September 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited