Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies
Series Vol. 16 , 13 September 2023
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Access | Article
All-cause Excess Mortality Cross-sectional Correlation Analysis at Global Scale during COVID-19, 2020-22
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The excess mortality during COVID-19 is significantly higher than the reported death due to COVID-19 infections. This study conducts a cross-sectional correlation analysis between excess mortality and reported COVID-19 death, aging rate, GHS (Global Health Security) index, and government response stringency index in the timeframe from January 2020 to September 2022. This study aims to explore the main contributors to excess mortality, hence to provide guidance on future diagnosis and control of the pandemic. A cross-sectional log-linear model is fitted with 79 observations to estimate the explanatory power of reported COVID-19 death, aging rate, GHS index and stringency index on excess mortality at a global scale. The correlation between excess mortality and reported COVID-19 death is also examined on a nation level by calculating the Spearman correlation coefficient on the time series of the two. The cross-sectional log-linear model has adjusted . The estimate for log of reported COVID death is ; aging rate is ; GHS index is ; stringency index is not significant. On a nation level, Brazil and United States have high correlations between reported and excess death (), the reported death takes up 85% and 86% respectively, of excess death. India and Japan, similarly, have high correlation coefficient (), but with COVID-19 death accounting 9% and 47% of excess death. Germany and China have relatively small correlations between reported and excess death (), but Germany has reported death taking up 89% of excess death, whereas in China the ratio is 4%. At a global scale, the reported COVID-19 death has the most explanatory power in excess mortality, which means that most of excess mortality is attributed to death from COVID-19 infections. Aging rate has a negative correlation between excess mortality, this is partly because of the preference of aged population to live in countries with better health care capacities. There is no significant explanatory power of stringency index on excess mortality, suggesting that the impact of government responses on COVID-19 vary by each nation. On a country level, the correlation between COVID-19 death and excess mortality can also vary, mostly due to the different levels of health care disruptions, efficiency and impact of government measures and other COVID-19 unrelated events such as wars and heat waves.
Keywords
excess mortality, COVID-19, all-cause excess mortality, government response, population aging, health care disruption
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Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-915371-75-1
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-915371-76-8
- Published Date
- 13 September 2023
- Series
- Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- ISSN (Print)
- 2754-1169
- ISSN (Online)
- 2754-1177
- DOI
- 10.54254/2754-1169/16/20230991
- Copyright
- 13 September 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited