Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences

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Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis

Series Vol. 49 , 01 December 2023


Open Access | Article

US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective

Kaichen Zhang * 1
1 The High School affiliated to Beijing Normal University, Beijing

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, Vol. 49, 77-83
Published 01 December 2023. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by EWA Publishing
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Citation Kaichen Zhang. US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective. AEMPS (2023) Vol. 49: 77-83. DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/49/20230487.

Abstract

Since the US initiated the trade war and sought the decoupling of trade between China and the US, the US economic and financial situation has taken a sharp turn and inflation has remained high. So, this article studied the inflation analysis of the United States from the perspective of Sino-US trade and made a forecast. This paper constructs an ARIMAX model to empirically analyze the relationship between US-China trade and US inflation. The study shows that there is a significant positive correlation between China's export price index and the US CPI, which shows that China and the US are important stakeholders of each other. Because the United States is one of the largest economies, its economic development is of great significance to the world economic pattern and affects the whole world. Through the economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States, the inflation rate of the United States will be reduced, and the economic growth of the United States will be promoted.

Keywords

inflation, ARIMAX model, export price index, CPI

References

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Data Availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
ISBN (Print)
978-1-83558-145-2
ISBN (Online)
978-1-83558-146-9
Published Date
01 December 2023
Series
Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
ISSN (Print)
2754-1169
ISSN (Online)
2754-1177
DOI
10.54254/2754-1169/49/20230487
Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Copyright © 2023 EWA Publishing. Unless Otherwise Stated