Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Series Vol. 6 , 27 April 2023
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Extrapolation bias is a popular topic recently in economics and finance. Many researchers have become interested in this bias because it can explain many anomalies that a rational model cannot. This paper is a simple review of extrapolation bias, including its definition and bias. After reviewing past research on extrapolation, this paper selects a comprehensible definition, and three applications that can represent the recent research on extrapolation: the investor behavior model, the bubble model, and the house price model from three different top papers. After the review, it can be concluded that extrapolation bias has a wide applied range especially, in the financial market and asset pricing, and can explain many financial anomalies.
behavior economy, behavior finance, extrapolation
1. Cassella S, Gulen H. Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables. The Review of Financial Studies. 2018;31(11):4345-4397. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhx139
2. Greenwood R, Shleifer A. Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns. The Review of Financial Studies. 2014;27(3):714-746. doi:10.1093/rfs/hht082
3. Fuster A, Laibson D, Mendel B. Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2010;24(4):67-84. doi:10/fqgg5w
4. Barberis N, Greenwood R, Jin L, Shleifer A. X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model. Journal of Financial Economics. 2015;115(1):1-24. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.08.007
5. Glaeser EL, Nathanson CG. An extrapolative model of house price dynamics. Journal of Financial Economics. 2017;126(1):147-170. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.06.012
6. He W, Shen J. Investor Extrapolation and Expected Returns. Journal of Behavioral Finance. 2010;11:150-160. doi:10.1080/15427560.2010.507164
7. Giglio S, Kelly B. Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates*. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2018;133(1):71-127. doi:10.1093/qje/qjx034
8. Barberis N, Jin L. Model-free and Model-based Learning as Joint Drivers of Investor Behavior. Working Paper.:56.
9. Jin LJ, Sui P. Asset pricing with return extrapolation. Journal of Financial Economics. 2022;145(2, Part A):273-295. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.009
10. Barberis N. Chapter 2 - Psychology-Based Models of Asset Prices and Trading Volume. Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Applications and Foundations 1. Vol 1. Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1. North-Holland; 2018:79-175. doi:10.1016/bs.hesbe.2018.07.001
11. Daniel K. Thinking, fast and slow. Published online 2017.
12. Barberis N, Greenwood R, Jin L, Shleifer A. Extrapolation and bubbles. Journal of Financial Economics. 2018;129(2):203-227. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.04.007
13. Lee S, Rivera A. Extrapolation Bias and Robust Dynamic Liquidity Management. Management Science. 2021;67(10):6421-6442. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3765
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Authors who publish this series agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this series.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this series.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open Access Instruction).