Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Management Research and Economic Development
Series Vol. 19 , 13 September 2023
Open
Access | Article
Trend of Chip Industry under the Negative Interest Rate Policy: Based on Time Series Model
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
On 7 October 2022, the US government issued a revised policy regarding semiconductor technology export toward China. The 139 pages of rules stated the regulation on export of chips, more specifically, the advanced computer chips that could support AI algorithms. In fact, this is not the first time for US government banning export of high-end computer chips to China, but this one could be the most expensive export restriction within a decade. Chinese chip companies have long suffered from the banning from US government, the development of the whole industry is filled with twists and turns as well, but the thriving of Chinese chip market is still deeply related to the US economy's performance. This paper discovers the correlation between the performance of Chinese chip industry, which is revealed by the index level of chip industry within China's mainland stock market, and the US to RMB exchange rate, starting from 2016 to present. The paper applied ARMA-GARCH model to predict and analyze the data, studying how will US exchange rate affect the development of chip industry in China. It also predicts the development of Chinese chip industry and then makes suggestions for future development of the Chinese chip companies.
Keywords
exchange rate, stock index, chip industry, China, US.
References
1. General admission of customs P.R. CHINA (2022), Table of main imported commodity volume and value in December 2021 (in US dollars)http://www.customs.gov.cn//customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/4127373/index.html
2. IC Insights. (2021). Chinese Companies Hold Only 5% of Global IC Marketshare. https://www.design-reuse.com/news/49792/2020-worldwide-ic-marketshare.html
3. Choice Finance. Retrieved January 4, 2023, from https://www.eastmoney.com/
4. Stephanie. (2021). Unit root: Simple definition, unit root tests. Statistics How To. Retrieved January 4, 2023, from https://www.statisticshowto.com/unit-root/
5. Vector autoregressive models: Specification. Retrieved January 4, 2023, from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/b.9780631215585.1999.00003.x
6. Ren, S. et al. (2022) ‘Polarization Domain Spectrum Sensing Algorithm Based on AlexNet’, Sensors (14248220), 22(22), p. 8946. doi:10.3390/s22228946.
7. Anderson, S. F. (2020). Misinterpreting p: The discrepancy between p values and the probability the nullhypothesis is true, the influence of multiple testing, and implications for the replication crisis. Psychological Methods, 25(5), 596–609. https://doi-org.ez.xjtlu.edu.cn/10.1037/met0000248
8. Yang, H. et al. (2022) ‘The Dynamic Impacts of Weather Changes on Vegetable Price Fluctuations in Shandong Province, China: An Analysis Based on VAR and TVP-VAR Models’, Agronomy, 12(11), p. 2680. doi:10.3390/agronomy12112680.
9. Zhaoyi Zhou (2010) ‘Analysis of Advantages and Disadvantages of the Appreciation of Current Renminbi against US Dollar’, JOURNAL OF JIANGXI FINANCE COLLEGE, 23(4), pp. 42–44.
10. Avdjiev, S., Bruno, V., Koch, C., & Shin, H. S. (2019). The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment. IMF Economic Review, 67(1), 151–173. https://doi-org.ez.xjtlu.edu.cn/10.1057/s41308-019-00074-4
Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Authors who publish this series agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this series.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this series.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open Access Instruction).
- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Management Research and Economic Development
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-915371-81-2
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-915371-82-9
- Published Date
- 13 September 2023
- Series
- Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- ISSN (Print)
- 2754-1169
- ISSN (Online)
- 2754-1177
- DOI
- 10.54254/2754-1169/19/20230116
- Copyright
- 13 September 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited