Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
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Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis (ICFTBA 2022), Part 1
Series Vol. 5 , 23 April 2023
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Can Hedge Fund Returns Be Predicted?
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
After the 2008 financial crisis, hedge funds regained their popularity. Investors naturally wonder whether it is possible to predict and explain hedge fund returns just as its constituents. To answer this question, we examined hedge fund performance of 14 strategies from 2000 to 2017 by separating them into 3 groups. After deriving a statistical model, we applied it to the period of 2017-2022 and examined the errors. We observed that most strategies have a positive risk-adjusted rate of return and the current period’s returns have a positive relationship with the previous period’s. We concluded that monthly return has too much randomness while 3 strategies’ yearly returns in the middle quantile could be predicted. More historical return data can improve the accuracy of the model.
Keywords
financial market, predict, hedge funds
References
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Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis (ICFTBA 2022), Part 1
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-915371-21-8
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-915371-22-5
- Published Date
- 23 April 2023
- Series
- Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
- ISSN (Print)
- 2754-1169
- ISSN (Online)
- 2754-1177
- DOI
- 10.54254/2754-1169/5/20220066
- Copyright
- 23 April 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited